O comércio online como motor do crescimento económico na Europa
Abstract
Este estudo analisou o impacto do comércio online no crescimento económico de 27 países europeus durante o período de 2018 a 2024. Para o efeito, recorreu-se a uma metodologia de dados em painel, estimada através de um modelo de efeitos fixos com erros-padrão robustos. Os resultados evidenciam que um aumento da percentagem de pequenas e médias empresas (PME) que realizam vendas online está associado a um aumento da taxa de crescimento real do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), ainda que este efeito apenas seja estatisticamente significativo ao nível de 10%. Os resultados demonstram igualmente que a abertura comercial e a qualidade da governança exercem um efeito positivo e estatisticamente significativo sobre o crescimento económico, enquanto a taxa de desemprego e a taxa de juro apresentam um impacto negativo e estatisticamente significativo. O investimento direto estrangeiro e a percentagem da população com ensino superior revelam igualmente uma associação positiva com o crescimento económico, embora apenas significativa ao nível de 10%. Em contrapartida, a taxa de câmbio, a despesa pública, a variação populacional e o preço do petróleo não apresentaram efeitos estatisticamente significativos. Os resultados reforçam a importância da digitalização das PME, da abertura comercial, da qualidade institucional, da qualificação da população e da atração de investimento direto estrangeiro como fatores potenciadores do crescimento económico dos países europeus.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Abbas, Q., Akbar, S., Shan Nasir, A., Aman Ullah, H., Qaiser Abbas, B., & Akram Naseem, M. (2011). Impact of foreign direct investment on gross domestic product. Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 11(8), 35–40. https://www.academia.edu/download/93202051/5-Impact-of-Foreign-Direct-Investment-on-Gross-Domestic-Product.pdf
Acemoglu, D., Autor, D., Dorn, D., Hanson, G. H., & Price, B. (2014). Return of the Solow paradox? IT, productivity, and employment in US manufacturing. American Economic Review, 104(5), 394-399.
Akter, S., Voumik, L. C., Rahman, Md. H., Raihan, A., & Zimon, G. (2023). GDP, health expenditure, industrialization, education and environmental sustainability impact on child mortality: Evidence from G-7 countries. Sustainable Environment, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/27658511.2023.2269746
Albiman, M. M., & Sulong, Z. (2017). The linear and non-linear impacts of ICT on economic growth, of disaggregate income groups within SSA region. Telecommunications Policy, 41(7-8), 555-572.
Alexandre, F., Bação, P., Carreira, C., Cerejeira, J., Loureiro, G., Martins, A., & Portela, M. (2017). Investimento empresarial e o crescimento da economia portuguesa. Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian. https://hdl.handle.net/1822/54674
Alexandre, F., Jalles, J., Martins, J., Brinca, P., Sequeira, T., Montelius, L., & Santos, C. (2021). Do made in ao created in: um novo paradigma para a economia portuguesa. Fundação Francisco Manuel Dos Santos. https://ffms.pt/pt-pt/estudos/estudos/do-made-ao-created-um-novo-paradigma-para-economia-portuguesa
Amaro, M., & Costa, L. M. (2023). Determinants of access to healthcare in European countries. European Journal of Applied Business and Management, 9(4).
Anvari, R. D., & Norouzi, D. (2016). The impact of e-commerce and R&D on economic development in some selected countries. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 229, 354-362.
Azizov, M., Bilan, Y., Jabiyev, F., Alirzayev, E., & Heyderova, A. (2023). The impact of foreign direct investment on GDP growth: The case of Turkey. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 20(4), 50–59. https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.20(4).2023.05
Babu, T. (2022). Civil Service System and Personnel Management of Bangladesh. Ukrainian Policymaker, 11. https://doi.org/10.29202/up/11/2
Bakumenko, L. P., & Minina, E. A. (2020). International index of digital economy and society (I-DESI): trends in the development of digital technologies. Statistics and economics, 17(2), 40-54.
Banco de Portugal. (2025). Boletim económico – dezembro 2025. Banco de Portugal. https://www.bportugal.pt/publicacao/boletim-economico-dezembro-2025
Bangemann, M. (1994). Recommendations to the European Council: Europe and the global information society. Brussels: European Commission.
Barro, R. J. (2001). Human capital and growth. American Economic Review, 91(2), 12–17. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.2.12
Bazaluk, O., Kader, S. A., Zayed, N. M., Chowdhury, R., Islam, Md. Z., Nitsenko, V. S., & Bratus, H. (2025). Determinant on Economic Growth in Developing Country: A Special Case Regarding Turkey and Bangladesh. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 16(1), 135–159. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-01989-8
Bazaluk, O., Rahman, M. A., Zayed, N. M., Faisal-E-Alam, Md., Nitsenko, V., & Kucher, L. (2024). Crowdsourcing review: the crowd workers’ perspective. Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, 51(3), 647–666. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40812-023-00295-9
Bazaluk, O., Yatsenko, O., Reznikova, N., Bibla, I., Karasova, N., & Nitsenko, V. (2022). International integration processes influence on welfare of country. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 23(2), 382–398. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2022.16228
Beck, R., Wigand, R. T., & Konig, W. (2005). Integration of e-commerce by SMEs in the manufacturing sector: a data envelopment analysis approach. Journal of Global Information Management (JGIM), 13(3), 20-32.
Becker, G. S. (1964). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education. Columbia University Press.
Benhabib, J., & Spiegel, M. M. (1994). The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data. Journal of Monetary Economics, 34(2), 143–173. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(94)90047-7
Bertschek, I., Cerquera, D., & Klein, G. J. (2013). More bits–more bucks? Measuring the impact of broadband internet on firm performance. Information Economics and Policy, 25(3), 190-203.
Borowiecki, R., Siuta-Tokarska, B., Maroń, J., Suder, M., Thier, A., & Żmija, K. (2021). Developing digital economy and society in the light of the issue of digital convergence of the markets in the European Union countries. Energies, 14(9), 2717.
Büchi, M., Festic, N., & Latzer, M. (2018). How social well-being is affected by digital inequalities. International Journal of Communication, 12, 3686-3706.
Burch, S. (2006). The Information society–the knowledge society.
Carrasco, C. A., & Tovar-García, E. D. (2021). Trade and growth in developing countries: the role of export composition, import composition and export diversification. Economic Change and Restructuring, 54(4), 919–941. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-020-09291-8
Chaves Avila, R., Bernal Jurado, E., Mozas Moral, A., & Puentes Poyatos, R. (2014). Improving e-economy by regional governments. Management Decision, 52(3), 559-572.
Comissão Europeia (2024). The Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI). Disponível em: https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/desi.
Davcev, L., Hourvouliades, N., & Komic, J. (2018). Impact of Interest Rate and Inflation on GDP in Bulgaria, Romania and FYROM. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 20(2), 131–147. https://doi.org/10.1080/19448953.2018.1379746
De Soyres, C., Kawai, R., & Wang, M. (2022). Public Debt and Real GDP: Revisiting the Impact. International Monetary Fund.
Di Martino, B., Marino, A., Rak, M., & Pariso, P. (2020). Optimization and validation of eGovernment business processes with support of semantic techniques. In Complex, Intelligent, and Software Intensive Systems: Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Complex, Intelligent, and Software Intensive Systems (CISIS-2019) (pp. 827-836). Springer International Publishing.
Dreger, C., & Reimers, H. E. (2013). Does euro area membership affect the relation between GDP growth and public debt?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 38, 481-486.
Eregha, P. B., & Mesagan, E. P. (2020). Oil resources, deficit financing and per capita GDP growth in selected oil-rich African nations: a dynamic heterogeneous panel approach. Resources Policy, 66, 101615.
Eregha, P. B., & Mesagan, E. P. (2020). Oil resources, deficit financing and per capita GDP growth in selected oil-rich African nations: A dynamic heterogeneous panel approach. Resources Policy, 66, 101615. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESOURPOL.2020.101615
Evangelista, R., Guerrieri, P., & Meliciani, V. (2014). The economic impact of digital technologies in Europe. Economics of Innovation and new technology, 23(8), 802-824.
Farkas, B. (2012). Absorptive Capacities and the Impact of FDI on Economic Growth. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2038182
Fernandes, A., Pereira, E. T., Bento, J., Madaleno, M., & Robaina, M. (2023). Introdução à Economia (4a). Edições Sílabo.
Fernández-Portillo, A., Almodóvar-González, M., & Hernández-Mogollón, R. (2020). Impact of ICT development on economic growth. A study of OECD European union countries. Technology in Society, 63, 101420.
Frank, A. G., Dalenogare, L. S., & Ayala, N. F. (2019). Industry 4.0 technologies: Implementation patterns in manufacturing companies. International journal of production economics, 210, 15-26.
Habib, M. M., Mileva, E., & Stracca, L. (2017). The real exchange rate and economic growth: Revisiting the case using external instruments. Journal of International Money and Finance, 73, 386–398. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JIMONFIN.2017.02.014
Haller, S. A., & Lyons, S. (2015). Broadband adoption and firm productivity: Evidence from Irish manufacturing firms. Telecommunications Policy, 39(1), 1-13.
Hanna, N. K. (2016). Mastering digital transformation. Mastering Digital Transformation (Innovation, Technology, and Education for Growth). Bingley, UK: Emerald Publishing, pp. i–xxvi.
Heimberger, P. (2023). Do higher public debt levels reduce economic growth?. Journal of Economic Surveys, 37(4), 1061-1089.
Ho, S. C., Kauffman, R. J., & Liang, T. P. (2011). Internet-based selling technology and e-commerce growth: a hybrid growth theory approach with cross-model inference. Information Technology and Management, 12, 409-429.
Jiménez-Rodríguez*, R., & Sánchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied economics, 37(2), 201-228.
Jorgenson, D. W., & Vu, K. M. (2016). The ICT revolution, world economic growth, and policy issues. Telecommunications Policy, 40(5), 383-397.
Kasiri, L. A., Cheng, K. T. G., Sambasivan, M., & Sidin, S. M. (2017). Integration of standardization and customization: Impact on service quality, customer satisfaction, and loyalty. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 35, 91-97.
Kergroach, S. (2021). SMEs going digital: policy challenges and recommendations.
Kesar, A., Bandi, K., Jena, P. K., & Yadav, M. P. (2023). Dynamics of governance, gross capital formation, and growth: Evidence from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Journal of Public Affairs, 23(1). https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2831
Khin, S., & Ho, T. C. (2018). Digital technology, digital capability and organizational performance: A mediating role of digital innovation. International Journal of Innovation Science, 11(2), 177-195.
Kraus, S., Durst, S., Ferreira, J. J., Veiga, P., Kailer, N., & Weinmann, A. (2022). Digital transformation in business and management research: An overview of the current status quo. International journal of information management, 63, 102466.
Kumar, R. R., Stauvermann, P. J., & Samitas, A. (2016). The effects of ICT⁎ on output per worker: A study of the Chinese economy. Telecommunications Policy, 40(2-3), 102-115.
Kutasi, G., & Marton, Á. (2020). The long-term impact of public expenditures on GDP-growth. Society and Economy, 42(4), 403–419. https://doi.org/10.1556/204.2020.00018
Licchetta, M., & Mattozzi, G. (2023). Convergence in GDP per Capita in the Euro Area and the EU at the Time of COVID-19. Intereconomics, 58(1), 43–51. https://doi.org/10.2478/ie-2023-0012
Lopes, L. E., Packham, N., & Walther, U. (2023). The effect of governance quality on future economic growth: an analysis and comparison of emerging market and developed economies. SN Business & Economics, 3(6), 108. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-023-00488-3
Lucas, R. E., Jr. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
Majeed, M. T., Luni, T., & Zaka, G. (2021). Renewable energy consumption and health outcomes: Evidence from global panel data analysis. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences (PJCSS), 15(1), 58–93. https://hdl.handle.net/10419/233768
Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407–437. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118477
Margaras, V. (2018). The regions in the digital single market. Brussels: Briefing, European Parliament Research Service.
Marino, A., & Pariso, P. (2021). Digital economy: Technological, organizational and cultural contexts for the development of cooperation in Europe. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 9(2), 363.
Matarazzo, M., Penco, L., Profumo, G., & Quaglia, R. (2021). Digital transformation and customer value creation in Made in Italy SMEs: A dynamic capabilities perspective. Journal of Business Research, 123, 642-656.
Mayer, W., Madden, G., & Wu, C. (2020). Broadband and economic growth: a reassessment. Information Technology for Development, 26(1), 128-145.
Mia, M. A., Hossain, M. I., & Sangwan, S. (2024). Determinants of digitalization: Evidence from Asia and the Pacific countries. Digital Transformation and Society, 3(4), 340–358. https://doi.org/10.1108/DTS-10-2023-0097
Mohamad, R., & Ismail, N. A. (2009). Electronic commerce adoption in SME: The trend of prior studies. Journal of Internet banking and Commerce, 14(2).
Moroz, M. (2017). The level of development of the digital economy in Poland and selected European countries: A comparative analysis. Foundations of Management, 9 (1), 175–190.
Müller, J. M., Buliga, O., & Voigt, K. I. (2021). The role of absorptive capacity and innovation strategy in the design of industry 4.0 business Models-A comparison between SMEs and large enterprises. European Management Journal, 39(3), 333-343.
Neves, M. B. (2023). Relação Entre Investimento Direto Estrangeiro e Economia Paralela. Universidade do Porto.
Papadopoulos, T., Baltas, K. N., & Balta, M. E. (2020). The use of digital technologies by small and medium enterprises during COVID-19: Implications for theory and practice. International journal of information management, 55, 102192.
Pappas, I. O., Kourouthanassis, P. E., Giannakos, M. N., & Lekakos, G. (2017). The interplay of online shopping motivations and experiential factors on personalized e-commerce: A complexity theory approach. Telematics and informatics, 34(5), 730-742.
Park, H., & Choi, S. O. (2019). Digital innovation adoption and its economic impact focused on path analysis at national level. Journal of open innovation: Technology, market, and complexity, 5(3), 56.
Parra, J., Pérez-Pons, M. E., & González, J. (2021). Study Based on the Incidence of the Index of Economy and Digital Society (DESI) in the GDP of the Eurozone Economies. In Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence, Special Sessions, 17th International Conference (pp. 164-168). Springer International Publishing.
Pegkas, P. (2015). The impact of FDI on economic growth in Eurozone countries. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 12(2), 124-132.
Pérez-Morote, R., Pontones-Rosa, C., & Núñez-Chicharro, M. (2020). The effects of e-government evaluation, trust and the digital divide in the levels of e-government use in European countries. Technological forecasting and social change, 154, 119973.
Proksch, D., Rosin, A. F., Stubner, S., & Pinkwart, A. (2024). The influence of a digital strategy on the digitalization of new ventures: The mediating effect of digital capabilities and a digital culture. Journal of small business management, 62(1), 1-29.
Russo, V. (2020). Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI). European guidelines and empirical applications on the territory. Qualitative and quantitative models in socio-economic systems and social work, 427-442.
Samsul, A., Repon, M., & Rasheda Akter, R. (2023). An Analysis of Indian Commercial Dynamism in International Trade: 2000-2021. DIU Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship, 16(01), 179–200. https://doi.org/10.36481/diujbe.vo16i1.61ytrm10
Sial, M. H., Arshed, N., Amjad, M. A., & Khan, Y. A. (2022). Nexus between fossil fuel consumption and infant mortality rate: a non-linear analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(38), 58378–58387. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19975-5
Singh, B. P. (2022). Does Governance Matter? Evidence from BRICS. Global Business Review, 23(2), 408–425. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150919861222
Singh, B. P., & Pradhan, K. C. (2022). Institutional quality and economic performance in South Asia. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(1). https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2401
Skare, M., de Obesso, M. D. L. M., & Ribeiro-Navarrete, S. (2023). Digital transformation and European small and medium enterprises (SMEs): A comparative study using digital economy and society index data. International Journal of Information Management, 68, 102594.
Skorupinska, A., & Torrent-Sellens, J. (2017). ICT, innovation and productivity: evidence based on eastern European manufacturing companies. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 8, 768-788.
Song, Z., Sun, Y., Wan, J., Huang, L., & Zhu, J. (2019). Smart e-commerce systems: current status and research challenges. Electronic Markets, 29, 221-238.
Stavytskyy, A., Kharlamova, G., & Stoica, E. A. (2019). The analysis of the digital economy and society index in the EU. TalTech Journal of European Studies, 9(3), 245-261.
Su, Y., & Liu, Z. (2016). The impact of foreign direct investment and human capital on economic growth: Evidence from Chinese cities. China Economic Review, 37, 97–109. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.CHIECO.2015.12.007
Szeles, M. R., & Simionescu, M. (2020). Regional patterns and drivers of the EU digital economy. Social Indicators Research, 150(1), 95-119.
Teoh, M. F., Ahmad, N. H., Abdul-Halim, H., & Ramayah, T. (2022). Is digital business model innovation the silver bullet for SMEs competitiveness in digital era? Evidence from a developing nation. Vision, 09722629221074771.
Thompson Jr, H. G., & Garbacz, C. (2011). Economic impacts of mobile versus fixed broadband. Telecommunications Policy, 35(11), 999-1009.
Venturini, F. (2015). The modern drivers of productivity. Research Policy, 44(2), 357-369.
Verhoef, P. C., Broekhuizen, T., Bart, Y., Bhattacharya, A., Dong, J. Q., Fabian, N., & Haenlein, M. (2021). Digital transformation: A multidisciplinary reflection and research agenda. Journal of business research, 122, 889-901.
Voumik, L. C., Rahman, Md. H., Islam, Md. A., Chowdhury, M. A. S., & Zimon, G. (2023). The Impact of Female Education, Trade Openness, Per Capita GDP, and Urbanization on Women’s Employment in South Asia: Application of CS-ARDL Model. Systems, 11(2), 97. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems11020097
Vu, K. M. (2011). ICT as a source of economic growth in the information age: Empirical evidence from the 1996–2005 period. Telecommunications policy, 35(4), 357-372.
Vu, K., Hanafizadeh, P., & Bohlin, E. (2020). ICT as a driver of economic growth: A survey of the literature and directions for future research. Telecommunications policy, 44(2), 101922.
Wang, Y., & Conesa, J. C. (2022). The role of demographics and migration for the future of economic growth in China. European Economic Review, 144, 104076. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104076
Warr, B., & Ayres, R. U. (2012). Useful work and information as drivers of economic growth. Ecological Economics, 73, 93-102.
Wawrosz, P., & Traksel, S. (2023). Negative Interest Rates and Its Impact on GDP, FDI and Banks’ Financial Performance: The Cases of Switzerland and Sweden. International Journal of Financial Studies, 11(2), 69. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11020069
Wooldridge, J. M. (2001). Applications of generalized method of moments estimation. Journal of Economic perspectives, 15(4), 87-100.
Xie, X., Han, Y., Anderson, A., & Ribeiro-Navarrete, S. (2022). Digital platforms and SMEs’ business model innovation: Exploring the mediating mechanisms of capability reconfiguration. International Journal of Information Management, 65, 102513.
Xu, X. (2023). Analysis of the Impact of Education Level on Regional GDP. Highlights in Business, Economics and Management, 21, 293–300.
Yazdan, G. F., & Hossein, S. S. M. (2013). FDI and ICT effects on productivity growth. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 93, 1710-1715.
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Portuguese Journal of Finance, Management and Accounting
e-ISSN: 2183-3826
DOI: 10.54663/2183-3826
International Networks of Indexing: GOOGLE SCHOLAR, RCAAP, REBID, DRJI 
